Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 60525.693992 64051.948402 67582.345263 71379.337914 75344.796313 79361.224802 83734.013001
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 54696.293774 60062.553568 65590.236047 71700.949983 78258.007579 85073.889064 92685.526177
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 50389.246911 56979.913009 63922.846118 71764.013554 80355.000336 89462.872434 99830.201459
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 47248.083914 54761.665585 62826.684380 72097.800990 82430.381381 93561.396264 106427.936658
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 44521.008010 52741.031112 61711.509196 72184.415040 84030.517217 96969.047794 112122.705342
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42827.412023 51724.198889 61575.601248 73233.600952 86590.637610 101353.613695 118839.631728
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40681.063749 50046.671072 60561.810310 73165.318816 87780.817425 104114.599076 123664.124284
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39475.544390 49373.872834 60625.524437 74265.788690 90252.836505 108293.999114 130084.851123
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38190.420571 48528.320100 60419.076290 74990.018384 92240.069242 111884.835646 135815.433274
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36631.915852 47278.342683 59666.458014 75006.975841 93345.766521 114415.138278 140292.094631
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35128.527211 46026.449958 58849.534235 74889.378443 94243.253704 116665.749089 144418.800065
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34318.419033 45581.193432 58967.437662 75863.449122 96420.092762 120413.740025 150315.738097
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33423.162382 45005.982047 58912.518026 76624.521233 98352.791978 123901.850629 155959.005823
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32394.865428 44224.508266 58571.298214 77008.578844 99812.052076 126820.881139 160935.881073
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31283.803055 43294.916688 58008.129569 77084.331681 100868.122811 129239.086495 165307.954034
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30374.213226 42587.649965 57691.734972 77439.581409 102247.916649 132039.535800 170145.597642
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29398.272824 41758.286016 57188.872641 77531.663525 103278.841757 134401.556610 174447.955280
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 28935.746547 41580.563229 57500.131556 78642.454726 105578.503932 138326.985593 180686.064093
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 27981.762810 40720.101031 56904.564294 78570.190137 106369.538032 140377.887527 184613.291738
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27606.991513 40617.076006 57278.062183 79735.015776 108726.031685 144381.197736 190980.851397
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27086.100635 40297.556966 57352.913092 80501.490032 110569.832272 147748.193087 196572.187874
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26284.796177 39570.832997 56868.956577 80519.435743 111439.023270 149884.658878 200626.574479
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 25464.278158 38792.229973 56292.880387 80394.985038 112107.598509 151758.114159 204349.392850